DRAKE'S EQUATION EXPLAINED TO KIDS

 With humans apparently the only intelligent life in the solar system, we must broaden our search for extraterrestrial intelligence to other stars, perhaps even other galaxies.

Let's look at some numbers to develop statistical estimates of life elsewhere in the universe.

DRAKE EQUATION (N = R* Fp* Ne *Fl *Fi *Fc* L)

To know the number of intelligent beings in the universe we have to know the values of each and every variable in the formula so let's understand those variables.

R = "THE AVERAGE RATE OF STAR FORMATION IN OUR GALAXY"

according to NASA and ESA on an average of 3 stars are born every year so the value of R is 3

Fp = "FRACTION OF THOSE STARS THAT HAVE PLANETS"

Recent studies and microlensing analysis suggest that every star in the milky way galaxy has a planet and some stars have couple of them. So, we have no right to take the average so as each and every star has a planet let's take Fp = 1

Ne = "THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF PLANETS THAT CAN SUPPORT LIFE PER STAR THAT HAS               PLANETS"

simply, the number of planets in the habitable zone

According to Kepler mission there are about a whooping 40 billion earth size planets and 11 billion of them are under the gravitational influence of sun like stars, this is huge so let's statistically approach .

As claimed by studies 10% of the planets in the star system can support life. therefore, Ne = 0.1

Fl = "FRACTION OF PLANETS THAT COULD SUPPORT LIFE , WHICH COULD DEVELOP LIFE            AT SOME POINT"

In the current situation, we don't even have a single piece of evidence about extraterrestrial life. So, it is difficult for us to predict the number.

As we discussed above that 10% planets could support life let's say 5% will develop life on them.

Therefore, Fl = 0.05

Fi = "FRACTION OF PLANETS WHICH COULD ACTUALLY DEVELOP INTELLIGENT LIFE LIKE            US"

This is the most difficult part, there are about a billion species on earth and only humans are able to develop intelligence. so let's again statistically think that we have half chances of developing intelligent beings on planets which could develop life . so Fi=0.025 

Fc =                  "FRACTION OF CIVILIZATIONS THAT DEVELOP TECHNOLOGY AND REVEAL               THEMSELVES BY RADIO WAVES"

From the past 50 years we have been sending space signals and were trying to receive those from other intelligent civilizations as well. But, we haven't received any because the radio telescopes that we use today have the capability to detect the radio waves that have come from 4 light years away only!. 

every intelligent civilization is keen to know about other civilization and the aliens are no exception 

so if intelligent life develops they will send radio signal for sure. Therefore, Fc=0.025

L = "LENGTH OF TIME SUCH CIVILIZATIONS RELEASE DETECTABLE SIGNALS INTO SPACE"

For example if a radio signal is sent from the nearest star(Proxima Centauri) it takes 4.2 years to reach the earth because radio waves and light travel with the same speed.

So if the radio signal has to travel between the two ends of the milky way galaxy it takes 1 lakh years

and if the radio signal has to travel the whole area of our galaxy then it has to cover 9372 square light years which means L = 87834384 years

N = 3*1*0.1*0.05*0.025*0.025*87834384 which is roughly equal to 52650

(some S.I unit conversions are made in between)

N = "NUMBER OF INTELLIGENT CIVILIZATIONS WHICH WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO COMMUNICATE WITH"

so I believe yo can imagine the number of intelligent civilizations in other trillions of galaxies.

comment your thoughts below😀